In recent years the City has seen an escalation in violence and vandalism on Halloween night. Determined to reestablish a safe and secure environment for all, City officials worked with residents, parents and merchants to determine the best way to ensure the evening is fun for all, particularly the small children who enjoy trick or treat activities and the neighborhoods where much of the Halloween activity takes place.

Students, parents, and neighbors are advised that a “ZERO TOLERANCE” policy will be in effect on Halloween night. Violations will not be tolerated and rules will be firmly enforced. Success will depend on everyone working together. Click here to learn more about how to prepare for a safe Halloween.

So that unacceptable behavior would not again occur, a special committee of local residents, appointed by the City, worked for several weeks to develop a public education and outreach program for this year’s Halloween activities. Click here to read the May 2007 report from the Halloween Task Force.

PLAN CHECK NOTICE

The Planning Department will not offer over-the-counter plan checks on Tuesday, October 23rd or Thursday ,October 25th. For the week of October 22nd only, the over-the-counter plan check hours will be Wednesday, October 24, from 2:00-3:30 pm and Friday, October 26, from 10:00-11:30 am.

MILLER AVENUE PRECISE PLAN
Town Hall Meeting

A Town Hall Meeting regarding the Miller Avenue Precise Plan has been scheduled for Thursday, Nov. 15th. The meeting will take place from 7-10 p.m. at the Mt. Tamalpais United Methodist Church, located at 410 Sycamore Avenue.

Community input and participation is important to the City of Mill Valley. Feedback and comments have been collected throughout the development of the MAPP to ensure that a comprehensive vision for Miller Avenue is based on input from neighbors, local residents, businesses, visitors, environmental groups, state and local agencies, and other interested parties. Public involvement is encouraged and will be incorporated into each stage of the process.

For more information please click here. To be added to the e-mail notification list, e-mail millerave@cityofmillvalley.org. For additional information contact Danielle Staude at 415-388-4033, ext 132.

THE ART COMMISSION PRESENTS…

Click-Off
The 2007 Click-Off – Mill Valley’s popular photography contest! Click here to view the poster and here for an application.

Milley Awards
The Milley Awards Board of Directors and the Mill Valley Art Commission are pleased to announce the recipients of the 2007 Milley Awards for Creative Achievement. They will be honored at a dinner on October 21st at the Mill Valley Community Center. Please click here for more information.

Call for Artists
The Mill Valley Art Commission is now accepting 2D work from artists in the greater Bay Area to be considered for a show in the City Hall Council Chambers or Mill Valley Community Center. Please click here for more information.

MILL VALLEY’S COMMITMENT to the ENVIRONMENT

If you were to take a walk from City Hall to Hauke Park today, you would come across two of the latest examples of the City’s Salvaged Wood Program, founded by Parks Superintendent Rick Misuraca. The program uses felled trees as lumber for city construction projects and as material for local artists. Click here to learn more….

Friday, October 26, 2007

By Alison Rogers
Inman News

I love insiders. Maybe it’s because I’m a New Yorker, but I always want to find the “insider connection” who will get me the “best deal.”

So I was very excited to interview Carolyn Warren, a former mortgage loan officer who wrote a book explaining the ins and outs of her industry. Warren explains: “I had been working in the industry about 10 years; I think the turning point was when I had lunch with a mortgage broker and he told me he had just closed a loan and made $40,000.”

Disgusted by the greed, she wrote a consumer-friendly book, called “Mortgage Rip-offs and Money Savers” (http://www.askcarolynwarren.com) published by John Wiley. There have been other mortgage insider books, she notes, but she is somewhat unique in that she has been a loan officer and also on the other side of the door doing wholesale lending. So here’s some of her expertise that she was kind enough to share with Alison Rogers, Inman’s Real Estate Rookie:

Rookie: I’m an agent, and I have a mortgage broker who I like — he stays on top of paperwork, and he returns my calls. But is he doing a good job for my clients?

Warren: It can go either way — some people who give the best service give the best pricing. Some people who give the best service give the worst pricing. I can tell you that mortgage trainers teach brokers to chase referrals, because “the trust is already there and you can get an extra point.” So even if you make the referral, you should still tell your clients to shop around.

Rookie: OK, as an agent, are there things I shouldn’t do? Things that drive loan officers crazy?

Warren: Loan officers like real estate agents because they bring them business. But you should trust that mortgage professional. It frustrates loan officers when the real estate agent is trying to steer the client into a certain type of loan, when they might not know all the financial facts. We don’t tell you how to sell the house and negotiate the purchase contract! Trust me to do the financing.

Also, if you as a loan person have a client who you’ve preapproved and then you send them to a real estate agent, and the agent says, “Oh, don’t work with that loan officer” … well, if you do that you’ll never get another referral.

Finally, don’t show someone houses above the amount they’re prequalified for — if they can get a $400K loan, and the agent shows them $499K houses, and gets their heart set on one, then you as a loan officer have to put the client in a 40-year loan or some other product that isn’t the right one for them.

So when a client shows up with a $400K preapproval, ask, is the $400K preapproval hard and fast, or is there wiggle room for price?

Rookie: Let’s talk about credit scores for a minute. I check my credit score once a year, but in your book you talk about the importance of pulling all three credit scores.

Warren: If you are three months away from buying a house, then just get a free credit report [some states allow you to get a free report once a year] and make sure that everything is as good as you can make it. But don’t pull your credit yet.

But if you are close, have your mortgage broker pull your tri-merged credit report — which lists all three credit bureaus’ scores.

For one, there are four different kinds of scoring algorithms. A lot of people pull their score online, and then their mortgage broker pulls it a week later, and it looks like their score went down — that’s because there is a difference between the credit card algorithm, which is lenient, and the mortgage algorithm, which is stiffer.

Also, each credit bureau gives you four reasons, in order of importance, why your score is not higher than it is, and that’s very helpful.

Rookie: August was … August was not a good time. It seems like it’s getting better, but can you say anything about jumbos in the present climate?

Warren: As investors become more comfortable, rates will come down. For the consumer getting that type of loan, there are usually zero points up front, because 1 percent of $2 million is so high. So you want to make sure that the yield spread premium [back-end commission] is disclosed on your Good Faith Estimate.

Some of the most expensive loans I’ve seen have come out of New York. I have a friend in the mortgage business there who blames former Wall Streeters who have gone into the mortgage business and are used to having a high income.

Rookie: What is a reasonable yield spread premium?

Warren: Around 1 percent. Well, it depends on your loan amount. Generally, $2,500 to $3,500 is a good fair commission — you can see the commission by adding the yield spread premium plus the origination fee. Maybe double that for a million-dollar loan.

I do offer a money-saver service — people can send me two Good Faith Estimates, and I’ll analyze their offers for them, point out any junk fees, and give them a script to talk to their loan officer. I tell them they save “double my fee or it’s free.”

The fee is $97, or $67 if they bought the book — 1 out of every 7 people, I tell them, “You have an excellent loan,” and I give their money back. But typically I save people anywhere from $300 to $2,000. I saved one person $8,000; that person was in New York.

Rookie: I’m scared to look at the yield spread premium on my mortgage now.

Warren: People just don’t know the right way to shop for a loan; no one from inside the industry has ever told them.

You can’t blame people because the information’s been kept hidden. And then they get bad advice — “shop deep and wide — ask a lot of people 10 questions” — can you imagine? You will end up with pages of scribbled notes; you won’t know what’s what.

And when you ask 10 questions up front, you will go with the smoothest talker, who is likely to be the biggest liar. Loan sharks, the people who overcharge, love to have somebody ask 10 questions; it gives them a chance to fill their ear with sweet talk, and a lot of time to build rapport.

The way to shop is to make three phone calls and ask just one question, one smart question: Can I get a Good Faith Estimate? Tell them please be sure to include the yield spread premium.

Rookie: I have some clients who make me work harder for my money — how can you tell if they’ll be extra work?

Warren: Subprime borrowers are almost always more work — they have issues that you have to clear to up that don’t appear until halfway through, such as a judgment that might not have showed up on the credit report, but it shows up on the title report, which is tied to their Social Security Number. I’ve had that happen multiple times, and then you can’t close the loan till it’s taken care of. Subprimes also don’t tell you they were self-employed for only 19 months; they say “two years” because they rounded up.

Because you are dealing with surprises midstream, it’s fair to make more money, but there’s a balance between what’s fair and financially raping a person.

Rookie: Last question — since real estate agents are self-employed, are there things we need to know about getting loans for ourselves?

Warren: If you’re self-employed, most lenders want a minimum of 24 months of self-employed history; they want that long to know you’re making it. But they don’t like numbers that trend downward. If you had a great year two years ago, and this year, you are making 25 percent less, they don’t average them. If you think that you’re going to have a year trending downward next year, get a house this year before you do.

Also, keep a paper trail. Deposit your whole check into the same bank account. There are lenders that will take 12 months of your bank statements and count the deposits and count that as income, but if you use three banks they won’t put together all three — put all your checks into one bank account. What you do with the money afterwards is up to you.

Alison Rogers is a licensed salesperson and author of “Diary of a Real Estate Rookie.”

Credit crunch slams California home prices, sales
Single-family existing-home sales plummet 39% in September
Friday, October 26, 2007Inman News

The sales rate of previously owned single-family homes fell 38.9 percent in September compared to the same month last year, while the median price declined 4.7 percent and the months’ supply bloated to 16.6 months, the California Association of Realtors reported today.

Colleen Badagliacco, association president, said in a statement that the year-over-year drop in median price — the first in more than 10 years — “was mainly the result of the credit or liquidity crunch, which also drove sales below the 300,000 mark.”

She also stated that California relies more heavily on jumbo loans, which are loans above a federally established conforming loan limit of $417,000, than many other states because home prices in the state typically exceed that amount.

“This speaks to the need to raise the conforming loan limit in higher-cost states like California to more accurately reflect the cost of housing,” she stated.

The national sales rate of single-family resale homes hit its lowest level in about 10 years in September, the National Association of Realtors reported this week, and fell 19.8 percent compared to September 2006. Also, the median U.S. single-family resale home price dropped 4.9 percent year-over-year in September, NAR reported.

Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said in a statement, “While the entry-level portion of the market has been adversely affected by the subprime situation and tighter underwriting standards for much of this year, the high end of the market also saw a decline in sales, as even well-qualified buyers were affected by the lack of funds available for jumbo loans.”

Sales of previously owned single-family detached homes in the state reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 271,590 in September, the association reported, compared with a rate of 444,780 sales in September 2006.

This rate is a projection of a monthly total over a 12-month period, adjusted to account for seasonal fluctuations in sales activity.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California was $530,830 in September, compared with $557,150 for that month last year.

The Unsold Inventory Index, a measure of the months needed to deplete the supply of for-sale homes based on the sales rate for a given month, skyrocketed from 6.4 months in September 2006 to 16.6 months in September 2007. A supply of six months is generally considered to indicate a buyer’s market.

Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 6.38 percent in September, compared with 6.4 percent in September 2006, according to Freddie Mac, while adjustable mortgage interest rates averaged 5.66 percent in September compared with 5.56 percent for that month in 2006.

The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 57.2 days in September, compared with 54 days for the same period a year ago, the California association reported.

Association statistics on single-family home sales and prices are based on a survey of about 90 Realtor associations throughout the state, and condo data is based on a survey of about 60 associations.

A separate report, based on local statistics gathered by the statewide association and real estate research company DataQuick Information Systems, found that 83.7 percent — or 239 of 289 cities and communities — had falling or level median home prices in September compared to the same month last year.

That report tracks all types of home sales, including sales of new and resale single-family homes and condos.

The 10 California cities and communities tracked in the report with the lowest median home prices in September include: Barstow, $163,000; North Highlands, $178,500; Ridgecrest, $180,000; Joshua Tree, $182,500; Yucca Valley, $200,000; Porterville, $202,500; Tulare, $224,000; Madera, $236,250; Crestline, $240,000; and Tehachapi, $243,750.

The 10 cities and communities tracked in the report with the highest median home prices in September include: Newport Beach, $1.44 million; Los Gatos, $1.23 million; Cupertino, $1.05 million; Danville, $1 million; Redondo Beach, $847,500; San Clemente, $830,000; Yorba Linda, $825,000; Arcadia, $805,000; San Rafael, $797,500; and Santa Monica, $796,500.

The 10 cities and communities with the largest decline in median home prices from September 2006 to September 2007 include: North Highlands, down 33.9 percent; Oakdale, down 33.8 percent; Arroyo Grande, down 29.8 percent; Patterson, down 29 percent; Los Banos, down 28 percent; Merced, down 27.8 percent; Spring Valley, down 26.5 percent; Elk Grove, down 25.6 percent; Ceres, down 25 percent; and Santa Ana, down 24.7 percent.

The 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in September compared with the same period a year ago were: Tustin, up 19.7 percent; Los Angeles, 18.2 percent; Arcadia, 14.2 percent; Carlsbad, 11.1 percent; Laguna Niguel, 10.1 percent; Diamond Bar, 8.7 percent; Cupertino, 8.4 percent; Redondo Beach, 8 percent; Reedley, 7.1 percent; and Newport Beach, up 6.3 percent.

Merced, Santa Barbara, Stanislaus, San Joaquin, El Dorado, Monterey and Santa Cruz counties had median-price declines above 15 percent in September compared to September 2006, according to the report.

Santa Clara County had the highest year-over-year median-price gain in September, at 3.4 percent. Other counties tracked by the report with price gains include Marin, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Contra Costa counties.

Statewide

Calif. (single-family) (Stats are as follows 1. Median price 2. % change in prioce from prior year 3. % change in sales units fron prior year)
1. $530,830
2. -4.70%
3.-38.90%

Calif. (condo)
$405,360
-4.60%
-31.10%

Region

Central Valley
NA
NA
NA

High Desert
$271,940
-17.40%
-62.70%

Los Angeles
$569,390
-2.80%
-38.40%

Monterey Region
$722,500
-0.50%
-38.30%

Monterey County
$690,000
1.50%
-41.70%

Santa Cruz County
$712,500
-5.00%
-34.30%

Northern California
$383,330
-3.60%
-31.50%

Northern Wine Country
$551,680
-9.90%
-40.90%

Orange County
$673,770
-4.60%
-32.90%

Palm Springs/Lower Desert
$346,080
0.60%
-33.60%

Riverside/San Bernardino
$356,510
-12.50%
-47.70%

Sacramento
$325,550
-11.90%
-38.90%

San Diego
$560,840
-5.60%
-36.40%

San Francisco Bay
$702,240
-5.00%
-45.60%

San Luis Obispo
$519,740
-9.10%
-35.00%

Santa Barbara County
$678,570
0.80%
-31.10%

Santa Barbara South Coast
$1,667,500
55.10%
-27.30%

North Santa Barbara County
$367,860
-17.60%
-34.10%

Santa Clara
$848,950
10.40%
-39.30%

Ventura
$681,820
-0.70%
-47.30%

Source: California Association of Realtors, based on data for single-family resale homes.

 

Sales results for Marin as of 10-15-07 per BAREIS multiple listing data is as follows:

Prices have not really declined here in Marin. What has declined is the number of sales as well as the percentage of homes under contract. As you can see from the numbers the average sales price has increased over the prior month as well as the prior year. The strongest segment of the market is the “luxury Market” those homes over $2 million. Buyers are still making offers on good properties.

The following table as of October 15 gives you the details:

The percentage pending is the percentage of those homes that are in contract with a buyer where all contingencies have been removed. Therefore, there is a high probablity that the house will close escrow and the sale will be consummated. When the percent pending reached 20% to 25% we have a balanced market bewteen buyers and sellers. As you can see not many communities are balanced. We have many more cities that are in a buyers market.

Vision Real Estate has been the top search results for Marin Real Estate and Marin County Real Estate for Google and Yahoo now for the past 5 years.  We provide the most up to date information on the state of the market in Marin County.  We have school statistics, demographic information, buyers and sellers guides and precisie infomation on the prices of homes in all of the Marin communities. Click on “Marin Report” to get the latest information on Marin County real estate prices and Subscribe to the monthly newsletter free of charge.

All U.S. interest rates have broken lower. The mortgage-defining 10-year T-note is trading at 4.4 percent, down from 4.7 percent last week, but mortgages will be slow to follow. Even agency loans are stuck in credit fear, but are likely to approach 6 percent soon.

Fed-defining short-term rates have dived almost a half-percent, a sure sign of renewed credit panic. A Fed cut on Halloween, doubtful on Monday, is now a sure thing.

What the hell happened so fast?

(As I recite developing misery, a note on morale to people near real estate markets, civilians and pros: Bad news is the only way for us to get the lower rates that our markets need. As Mom said, keep your eye on the doughnut, not the hole.)

The market sea-change has been driven by a change in awareness, not data. A one-week pop in new claims for unemployment insurance may turn into a trend, but is not yet; and anyone surprised by the new report of plunging in sales of new homes has been vacationing on another planet.

Since the August Crunch, global markets have been lost in the exuberance of cash pouring in from oil and trade, behaving like a bunch of teenage boys with elevated expectations for Saturday’s dates, misunderstanding the real distance of hand from promised land. American economy weak, its rates going down … Sell dollars! Buy euros! Rupees! Buy oil! Gold! Commodity anything! We don’t need America to buy exports — the world has de-coupled! Buy stocks, stocks, stocks, here there everywhere!

Finally, two months after the initial grip of the Crunch, the word is out: There is no relaxation at all. We are in a two-part systemic event: Several trillion dollars’ worth of trash lies where it was, value and ultimate disposition unknown; and worse, the impaired holders have dramatically reduced extension of new credit.

Reported losses at financial institutions, at first thought to be overstated (”kitchen sink” write-offs) are not. More will come. The institutional embarrassment is a greater impediment to new credit than the numbers: The losses are formal confessions by management and directors of personal incompetence. That’ll make you risk-averse.

PMI and MGIC, mortgage insurers who avoided the worst of the mortgage party by shrinking their market share — that’s what they said — announced huge losses.

The best black comedy: Citi led a parade of giant banks to the Treasury, trying for official blessing to keep $400 billion in off-balance-sheet trash from being forced back on (where it belongs) or into disorderly liquidation (Eeeeek! Might find out what it’s really worth!). Why Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson let them in the building is beyond me. He loaned them a conference room and bought sandwiches (day-old, I hope), and the bankers left without even a lipstick-on-a-pig deal among themselves.

Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke delivered his best speech in office, a somber affair acknowledging the reinforcing-spiral risk in a credit meltdown, using the same phrase as Vice-Chair Donald Kohn last week: “… Tighter credit could presage a broader weakening in economic conditions that would be difficult to arrest.”

After the speech, in Q&A, asked about the structured-finance deals presently evaporating, he said this: “I’d like to know what those damn things are worth.” The next day, John Mack, CEO of Morgan, volunteered, “It will take at least a year” to come up with proper valuations.

We don’t have a year without new credit, and there is no way to restore the supply of new credit without recognition and breakup of the dead-loss clog. I’m sure Mack would like to defer loss recognition indefinitely, but his remark indicates abject failure as a public steward, joined by his senior colleagues on The Street.

For all the awareness displayed this week by Bernanke and Paulson, they have not presented a single useful idea. Gentlemen, it is time to grasp the nettle: Force the sale or adequate capitalization of this stuff; if the losses are too big for markets or capital to absorb, get on with loss isolation by government guarantee.

Lou Barnes is a mortgage broker and nationally syndicated columnist based in Boulder, Colo. He can be reached at lbarnes@boulderwest.com.

If you’re a seller be patient, price your house agressively and hire an experienced real estate professional . The number of units sold to date ( to October 20, 2007 ) as compared to last year has declined by almost 9.7%. The number of units for single family homes has declined 6.2% but condominium sales have declined 21%. The interesting news is that the average sales price has maintined its base from the prior year and in some cases has increased. There appears to be a flight to safety in Marin where the communities with close commutes to the city and high Marin test scores are keeping prices high.

Below are the average prices for single family homes in some marin markets as of October 15, 2007:

The market has some similarities to the market of the early 1990’s when rates were high– except now rates are still historically low. Buyers are sitting it out now until they feel a pressing need to pull the trigger and buy that house. Pricing remains the key with some towns and neighborhoods still remaining active with multiple offers. You are always free to call me for advise at 415-297-9000.